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Colloquium
Thursday, November 19, 2009, 12:15 p.m., SCIC 126
Two studies of Lowcountry
meteorology: Determining severe weather precursors through synoptic
climatology, and visualizing hurricane surge physics with a next generation
model
Dr. B. Lee
Lindner
College of Charleston
Department of Physics
and Astronomy
Abstract: A synoptic climatology analysis of the
NOAA National Climatic Data Center database reveals several signals prior
to severe weather events in the Lowcountry. Specifically,
it was noted that either an existence of a strong southern jet stream
disturbance near southern California, the evolution of a dual jet stream
structure at 300 hPa, or the appearance of
significant southerly wind and warm temperature anomalies
in the Gulf of Mexico preceded significant tornadic
events. A surface high pressure building from southern Canada almost due
southward into the northern Gulf Coast preceded extreme cold events. The
transit of low-level high temperature anomalies from the Great Lakes into
the Mid-Atlantic preceded an extreme heat event. The persistence of an
anomalous blocking ridge over the western Atlantic as well as a weak low
over Florida preceded tropical cyclones that made landfall on the South
Carolina coast.
The National Weather Service has always struggled
conveying the complex physics of hurricane surge to the general public. Considering
that millions of lives and trillions of dollars are impacted by the
warnings issued, any improvement in public understanding of the underlying
physics has the potential to be very important. An Internet-based
interactive hurricane surge model that incorporates much of the underlying
physics is being developed that promises to accomplish just that. The
efficacy of the model will be evaluated through a series of surveys of
hundreds of participants in the Charleston area.
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